Did China’s Former Premier Speak the Forbidden Truth About Its Population?

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At a press conference on March 13, 2023, Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated that despite the country’s population decline, China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared. He emphasized that China still has nearly 900 million working-age people and that over 15 million new individuals join the workforce annually. Li also highlighted the emergence of a “talent dividend”, citing that more than 240 million people have received higher education and the average years of schooling for new workers is now about 14 years.

Claims of Inflated Population Data

Demographer Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has long argued that China’s official population figures are significantly overstated. He estimates that China’s population in 2020 was 1.28 billion, not the official 1.41 billion, suggesting an overstatement of about 130 million people. Yi attributes this discrepancy to systemic incentives for local governments to inflate population numbers to secure more central funding for education, pensions, and poverty alleviation.

Evidence Supporting Data Discrepancies

Several lines of evidence support concerns about data accuracy:

Birth and Education Data Mismatch: The National Bureau of Statistics reported 17.7 million births in 2000, aligning with 17.5 million first graders in 2006. However, the 2000 census recorded only 13.8 million children under one, creating a statistical inconsistency.
BCG Vaccination Data: Mandatory BCG vaccination for newborns shows a significant gap. In 2018–2020, only 5–6 million doses were distributed annually, which, given vaccine usage rates, suggests far fewer births than officially reported.
Shanghai Police Data Leak: A 2022 data breach of Shanghai police records, covering a random sample of 250,000 households, revealed age distribution patterns consistent with Yi’s adjusted population model, indicating faster-than-reported declines in younger cohorts.

Official Responses and Data Reliability

China maintains that its census data is reliable. The 2020 census reported a population of 1.41178 billion, with a post-enumeration survey showing an undercount rate of just 0.05%, indicating high data accuracy. The National Bureau of Statistics asserts that rigorous quality controls were in place. However, independent scholars and international analysts note persistent issues, including underreporting of infants due to family planning policies and incentives for local officials to inflate numbers.

Conclusion: Assessing the Truth Behind the Numbers

While Premier Li Qiang’s statements reflect the official narrative of sustained demographic strength, serious questions remain about the accuracy of China’s population data. Experts like Yi Fuxian present compelling evidence of systemic overcounting, supported by discrepancies in birth records, vaccination data, and leaked administrative records. However, no definitive independent verification exists, and the Chinese government stands by its figures. The truth likely lies in a complex interplay of real demographic decline and institutional pressures to maintain optimistic statistics.

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