In a MarketBeat TV interview (Oct 16, 2026), Kevin O’Leary (“Mr. Wonderful”) estimates 60–65% of announced AI data center projects will never be built, sunk by missing power, water, fiber, or political moratoriums. He argues the real winners are operators who already have power, permits, and signed tenants in place — making their capacity scarce and far more valuable than the market’s sell-off implies.
Who wins, per O’Leary:
- Bitzero Holdings — his primary public pick; has land, power, and permits in Norway and Finland, giving it liquidity and a proven profitable operation
- His own private projects in Utah and Alberta (Canada)
- More broadly, large caps like Microsoft for lower-volatility exposure
Key numbers he cites:
| Metric | Value |
| Cost of a single large project | ~$16 billion |
| Compute demand vs. supply | ~3× available |
| Projects expected to fail | 60–65% |
| Target return | 17–22% |
| Max leverage | 30% |
His core test: power + permits + tenants matter more than headline capex. The recent sell-offs in CoreWeave (~25% drop), Applied Digital, and IREN (~50% from highs) reflect spending fears, but O’Leary sees the bottleneck as permitting, not demand.
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