WKF 2024 - The End of China's Rise and the Future of World Order

2024 World Knowledge Forum, AEI Senior Fellow Michael Beckley delivered a keynote arguing that China’s rise ended in the 2020s, marking a shift from a globalized order to intense security competition. He posits that China’s economy is not just slowing but reversing, driven by negative productivity growth, skyrocketing debt, and demographic decline.

Beckley outlines three key arguments:

Economic Reversal: China’s growth was fueled by fleeting tailwinds like geopolitical security and hyper-globalization, which have turned into headwinds.
The “China Hangover”: Countries dependent on Chinese markets and loans are facing economic drag as China’s slowdown impacts global growth.
Peaking Power Behavior: Historically, peaking powers react to internal decline with domestic repression and aggressive foreign expansion, increasing the risk of global instability.

While Beckley expresses cautious optimism for a future bargain to resolve tensions, he warns that the current era is one of maximum danger due to China’s aggressive posture as a declining great power. Critics on platforms like Reddit have challenged his views, arguing that his debt comparisons are misleading and that China’s industrial and technological foundations remain strong.

World Knowledge Forum (WKF) 2024, scholars like Michael Beckley presented The End of China’s Rise and the Future of Global Order, arguing that China’s meteoric growth is not just slowing, but reversing. Peaking powers with dwindling resources and rising geopolitical resistance historically become more aggressive, ushering in a volatile era of great-power competition.

The Reversal of China’s Rise: Key Examples

Category	Example	Specific Details & Impacts
Economy	Reversing Growth & Debt Spikes	China’s economy is shrinking relative to the US; it requires three times more capital to produce each unit of GDP today than in the 2000s, fueling a massive debt-to-GDP surge.
Demographics	The “Lie Flat” (Tang Ping) Generation	Millions of disillusioned, underemployed youth are rejecting traditional societal pressures, reflecting societal exhaustion and a shrinking workforce.
Demographics	Unprecedented Population Contraction	China is experiencing a historic population decline, with the working-age population dropping by millions annually, stripping away a major engine of its past economic miracle.
Resources	Widespread Resource Depletion	Breakneck industrialization has depleted resources; China is now the world’s top importer of energy and agricultural products.
Resources	Severe Environmental Degradation	Half of China’s rivers have disappeared, and up to \(60\%\) of its groundwater is classified by the government as unfit for human contact.
Social	Wealth Flight and Talent Drain	Capital flight is surging as wealthy elites move assets and families out of the country to escape tightening domestic controls.
Geopolitics	“Weaponized Interdependence”	The global order is pivoting toward supply chain chokepoints and economic security; countries are actively “de-risking” their trade with China in critical minerals and tech.
Geopolitics	Aggressive Foreign Policy	Driven by dwindling internal resources, China is displaying a more assertive and antagonistic posture toward neighbors and Western powers to project strength abroad.
Domestic Order	Tightening Authoritarianism	The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is centralizing control, increasing domestic surveillance and repression to suppress internal unrest and dissent.
Global Markets	The “China Hangover”	Developing nations that relied heavily on Chinese loans and investments are facing economic fallout as China scales back overseas lending and domestic demand weakens.

The Future of World Order

Bipolar Security Blocs: The post-Cold War era of hyper-globalization is giving way to firm security competition. The world is increasingly divided into power blocs led by the United States and China, respectively.
Economic De-risking: Western allies are shifting from free trade to risk-adjusted trade. Initiatives to localize or ally-shore critical AI supply chains, energy networks, and microchips are reshaping global trade.
Heightened Risk of Conflict: Historically, when a rising superpower’s growth peaks and begins to decline in the face of geopolitical opposition, the risk of military escalation spikes. The Taiwan Strait and regional technology chokepoints serve as primary flashpoints.

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